• Safe Haven Effect: Escalating Iran-Israel tensions in the Middle East have prompted global investors to shift their capital to safer regions distant from conflict risks. Montenegro stands out as a “safe haven” during this process, bolstered by its NATO membership and EU candidacy status.
• Rising Demand and Price Trends: Regional instability has triggered a search for alternative markets, particularly among investors from Israel and neighboring countries. Since the second half of 2025, residential property prices in Montenegro have increased by approximately 20% annually, with average square meter prices reaching €2,200.
• Strategic Location and Investment: At Maremont Real Estate, we anticipate that demand for luxury housing in coastal areas such as Budva and Tivat will be sustained by capital inflows originating from the Middle East.
• Inflationary Pressures: The increase in energy costs triggered by the conflict is also driving up construction costs. This situation will lead to limited supply and the appreciation of existing portfolios.

Advantages of New Business Sectors and Economic Diversification in Montenegro

1. Economic Resilience and Stability: The Montenegrin economy, traditionally dependent on tourism, is gaining resilience against seasonal fluctuations with the emergence of new sectors focused on IT, renewable energy, and technology. This diversification creates year-round rental and purchase demand in the real estate market.
2. Skilled Migration and “White-Collar” Demand: New ventures in the technology and finance sectors are attracting high-income international professionals. This directly increases demand for the luxury housing segment and modern office spaces, supporting steady growth in property values.
3. Rental Yield and ROI Increase: The growth of the business world, alongside the increase in the Digital Nomad and expat population, maximizes long-term rental potential. According to Maremont Real Estate data, the rising demand for commercial spaces and residential-type housing significantly shortens the Return on Investment (ROI) period.
4. Infrastructure and Urban Development: The establishment of new industrial and technology zones necessitates the development of surrounding infrastructure. This brings undiscovered regions into the investment radar, offering investors high premium potential with low entry costs.
5. Tax Advantages and Investment Facilitation: Montenegro’s low corporate tax and investor-friendly policies encourage the establishment of new business lines, while also allowing business owners to secure residency rights through real estate investment.

At Maremont Real Estate, we observe that this new business ecosystem is transforming real estate from a mere shelter into a high-yield commercial instrument.

A 10-point assessment analyzing this critical period in global energy markets is as follows:

Supply Security and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes, has brought nearly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products flows to a near halt.

Price Volatility and Record Increases: Brent crude tested the $119.50 level during March as the conflict intensified, reaching the highest levels in recent years.

Activation of Strategic Reserves: In order to close the supply gap, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the largest intervention in its history, releasing 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves into the market.

OPEC+ Production Policies: While total regional production is estimated to have declined by around 10 million barrels per day due to the war in Iran, the OPEC+ group is evaluating production increases to stabilize the market.

Loss of Iran’s Production Capacity: Iran’s oil facilities, with a production capacity exceeding 3.3 million barrels per day, being targeted poses a risk of making the physical supply shortage permanent.

Global Inflationary Pressure: This sharp increase in energy costs is expected to add at least 0.8% directly to global inflation and complicate central banks’ interest rate easing processes.

Crisis in Refined Product Markets: Price increases in refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil have surpassed crude oil price increases due to disruptions in supply chains.

Energy Deficit in Asian Markets: Since 75% of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, this region faces the risk of industrial production disruptions.

LNG and Natural Gas Interaction: With Qatar suspending production and the closure of the strait, LNG prices have increased by 60%, turning the oil crisis into a broader energy crisis.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Future Outlook: Market analysts warn that oil prices could rise to as high as $200 per barrel depending on the duration of the conflict.

The OPEC+ group, at its ministerial meeting held on March 1, 2026, decided to increase production as of April 2026 in order to maintain the global supply-demand balance and mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks in the Middle East on prices.

The new production quotas and strategic details set for April 2026 are as follows:

Production Increase and Target Levels

The group has decided to end the “production freeze” period of the first quarter of 2026 and provide an additional 206,000 barrels per day starting from April. This increase is part of the gradual rollback of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary cuts announced in 2023.

Country-Based April 2026 Production Quotas

The following eight major producing countries will comply with the new daily production targets set for April:

Critical Notes and Flexibility

Monitoring and Revision: The OPEC+ JMMC committee will meet again on April 5, 2026, to assess market conditions and the impact of the Iran crisis; it has the flexibility to halt or reverse these increases if necessary.

Market Share Strategy: This increase move is supported particularly by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which aim to benefit from rising prices and regain market share amid U.S.-Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Overall Quota: The group’s overall production ceiling for 2026 is set at 39.725 million barrels per day.